At a symposium in Taipei, Taiwan's legislator Jiang Qichen threw out the argument that "there is something wrong with Taiwan, something wrong with the chip, and something wrong with the economy". Will security be in crisis? American scholar Sai Qi has judged that China has no intention and will not use force to unify Taiwan in the near future.
The Harvard Kennedy School of Government and the Center for Mainland China Studies of National Taiwan University held a public hearing on the challenges of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China to regional stability and economic relations at the Taiwan Legislative Yuan on the 18th.
The Harvard Kennedy School of Government and the Center for Mainland China Studies of National Taiwan University held a public hearing on the challenges of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China to regional stability and economic relations at the Taiwan Legislative Yuan on the 18th. Jiang Qichen, a Kuomintang legislator who was an international relations scholar, pointed out that 20 years ago, the world advocated globalization, the world was flat, and interdependent; now, whether the United States emphasizes supply chain security, or Xi Jinping's announcement at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China that "struggle replaces reform" , the world's superpowers are undergoing paradigm shift.
Jiang Qichen pointed out that Xi Jinping's speech at the 20th National Congress emphasized anti-independence, anti-foreign intervention, and avoid "internationalization" of the Taiwan issue. When the security concepts of the United States and China have changed, Taiwan should also deploy ahead of schedule, not only from the military, but also from the economy to think about Taiwan's security.
Jiang Qichen: Taiwan has something to do, the chip has something to do, the economy has something to do
Jiang Qichen said: "'Taiwan has problems, chips have problems, and the economy has problems'. When semiconductors and chips are moved out of Taiwan, are we still safe? I am afraid that Taiwan should immediately think about this matter. When other countries use the security of supply chains , When industrial security is a priority, Taiwan, is your national protection mountain still yours?
Taiwan's Kuomintang legislator Jiang Qichen. (Photographed by reporter Xia Xiaohua)
Including the United States, Japan, and Germany are actively beckoning to TSMC to set up factories there. Jiang Qichen believes that Taiwan must stand on the standpoint of the sovereign independence of the Republic of China, and is it still safe to think about the supply chain with national security first?
Jiang Qichen warned: "We say that we are very important, and everyone can't live without you, that's right, it's a sacred mountain for protecting the country, but can't it be removed? People are in Yugong's move mountain! After this move, the entire supply chain may be copied, which On the contrary, it is an issue that Taiwan has to face immediately in the shifting global security concept."
Jiang Qichen also mentioned that in the short term, in order to maintain stability, the CCP may coldly deal with the Taiwan Policy Act and the National Defense Authorization Act of the United States. One billion US dollars of U.S. military stockpiles of weapons can be allocated to Taiwan, and even the chairman of the US Senate Armed Services Committee recently mentioned five years of ten billion US dollars for military assistance to Taiwan, exceeding the original five-year US $6.5 billion in the National Defense Authorization Act. When did the CCP invade Taiwan by force? 2027? 2035? 2049? Some people say that this is not a matter of the timetable, but that this issue has always been on the agenda. As long as there are issues of reunification, promotion of reunification, and military reunification, Taiwan must pay attention to it at any time.
Harvard Scholar Sage Judgment: China Will Not Reign Taiwan by Force in the Near Future
Anthony Saich, director of the Ash Center at Harvard Kennedy School of Government, who attended the meeting in Taiwan, judged that the Chinese Communist Party cannot control Taiwan by force in the foreseeable future, and the Chinese leadership understands that it is impossible. What China is doing is To deter any possibility of Taiwan's declaration of independence, because if Taiwan declares independence, it will seriously undermine the legitimacy of the Communist Party's rule. As for the military exercise in August, it is the CCP's necessary response to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, and it also gives the PLA an opportunity to train troops.
Sai Qi said that the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, was not unexpected, showing that the policy continued and China's economy was facing great changes. Accelerate the internationalization of the RMB, establish the China International Energy Exchange, and establish a cross-border interbank payment system. China is the biggest beneficiary of globalization, but not a follower of the international order. China will strengthen its dominant position through international organizations, especially in areas where the United States has withdrawn, such as aviation, telecommunications and agriculture. Xi Jinping once said that China should become the rule A rule maker, not just a rule taker.
Sai Qi analyzed that China saw the strength of Western sanctions against Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian war, and Russia was an important backup for China to fight against the United States; while Russia is still in a chaotic situation, China has no intention or force to unify Taiwan in the short term, Xi Jinping said. There is no need to hurry, but Wutong is still on the Chinese agenda.
Tao Yifen, a professor of political science at National Taiwan University who attended the meeting online, also believes that Xi Jinping will not directly invade Taiwan by force in the next five years, because China knows that its strength is not enough to fight the United States without any worries, and its economy depends on international Trade, coupled with the increasingly firm attitude of international allies to support Taiwan. But Xi Jinping has evolved from anti-independence to promoting reunification, and will continue to create external military threats and divide Taiwanese.
In the next five years Tao Yifen: The CCP will "force peace with war" and "advance with military force" against Taiwan
Tao Yifen analyzed that Xi Jinping's policy towards Taiwan in the next five years will focus on "forcing peace through war" and "advancing with military force": "Dividing the people on the island into Chinese or those who are like patriots and are willing to integrate and develop with China on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, As well as being interfered by foreign forces to become Taiwan independence elements. It will force Taiwanese to choose between patriots and Taiwan independence, causing division of public opinion, panic among people, and the possibility of reaching the negotiating table in the end.”
Tao Yifen expects that the CCP will use a series of false information in the 2024 Taiwan presidential election to make the choice of "war and peace". To choose the DPP is to support Taiwan independence and face war, and to choose a party that supports No. 1 China will bring peace. Is it a free choice for the people of Taiwan to be forced to make choices under the coercion of force? She called on the government and opposition in Taiwan to unite and think about how to maintain Taiwan's democracy and the people to make choices without the threat of force.
Taiwanese scholar Xu Siqin said that many people in the American academic community believe that Xi Jinping will not be eager to use force against Taiwan, but he believes that these issues are related to how long Xi Jinping wants to stay in office and the overall national strength. Xu Siqin pointed out that Xi Jinping's report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China repeatedly talked about the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" and "unification of Taiwan", emphasizing that the reunification of the motherland "must and will be realized", and the audience applauded the longest. This is a phenomenon that needs attention. .
The forum was co-organized by blue and green legislators. He Zhiwei, a legislator of the Democratic Progressive Party, said that the civil war between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party has reached a truce between the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China? Not yet, it's just done in a different way and in a different way. He believes that the US, China and Taiwan should establish a hotline and anti-riot mechanism to ensure the predictability of the relationship.
Yin Liqiao, a special researcher at the Center for Mainland China Studies of National Taiwan University, believes that today in Taiwan too much emphasis is placed on "anti-China protection Taiwan", and we should think about how to evolve from "anti-China protection Taiwan" to the so-called "know China protection Taiwan", and establish a relationship with China and the region. A set of overall economic and national security policies.
